Forecast quality in the supply chain (Part 1)

By Mike Gilliland

The Spring 2014 issue of Foresight includes Steve Morlidge’s latest article on the topic of forecastability and forecasting performance. He reports on sample data obtained from eight business operating in consumer (B2C) and industrial (B2B) markets. Before we look at these new results, let’s review his previous arguments:

1. All extrapolative (time-series) methods are based on the assumption that the signal embedded in the data pattern will continue into the future. These methods thus seek to identify the signal and extrapolate it into the future.… READ MORE

Forecast quality in the supply chain (Part 1)

By Mike Gilliland

The Spring 2014 issue of Foresight includes Steve Morlidge’s latest article on the topic of forecastability and forecasting performance. He reports on sample data obtained from eight business operating in consumer (B2C) and industrial (B2B) markets. Before we look at these new results, let’s review his previous arguments:

1. All extrapolative (time-series) methods are based on the assumption that the signal embedded in the data pattern will continue into the future. These methods thus seek to identify the signal and extrapolate it into the future.… READ MORE

Getting New Innovation to the Market Fast with S&OP Best Practices from Nokia

By Ville Hovatta
share save 256 24 Getting New Innovation to the Market Fast with S&OP Best Practices from Nokia

Now, your company has an amazing new product to be launched for the next Christmas season. It’s said to be a make or break for meeting this year’s business goals. The launch is going to be a big event, and consumers expect to get the product in their hands as soon as possible. Engineers are working hard to get the product tested and ready; marketing is building the story and campaign details. What should you do in Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) to ensure that there is a best chance of success for the new product?… READ MORE

What Drives Inventory in Your Supply Chain?

By Billy Hou
inventory1 What Drives Inventory in Your Supply Chain?

Written by Haresh Gopalan & Billy Hou. One of the largest, if not the largest, investment of many businesses is inventory. This includes raw material, components, finished goods and spare parts. Inventory protects the business from fluctuations related to the order cycle, called cycle stock and changes in expected demand and lead times called safety stock. Maintaining the right inventory levels and understanding the tradeoffs requires knowledge of what drives inventory.

In the following, we will go into the details of how cycle stock and safety stock are calculated and therefore what drives the levels of inventory required.… READ MORE

Coincidence or Conspiracy?

Warning: This blog is written for a rational audience that likes to have fun wrestling with unique or controversial points of view. It is written in a style that can easily be confused as advocacy for one sort of unpleasantness or another. It is not intended to change anyone's beliefs or actions. If you quote from this post or link to it, which you are welcome to do, please take responsibility for whatever happens if you mismatch the audience and the content.… READ MORE

OH MY GOD I LIVE IN AN OLIGARCHY!!!!!!!!!!!!

You probably heard about a recent study that the media interpreted as showing evidence that the United States is sort of an oligarchy.

Cue ominous music.

The authors of the study in question didn't use the word oligarchy because the study doesn't support that conclusion. But the media sounded the oligarchy sirens anyway because that's how one creates news where there is none.

MSNBC, a skilled manufacturer of artificial news, led with this headline: “U.S. more oligarchy than democracy, study suggests.“

The first bit of context that MSNBC and others in the news removed from the story is that the United States isn't, and never was, a democracy.… READ MORE

The Snowden Presidency

I'm doubling down on my prediction that Edward Snowden will someday return to the United States, run for president on a third-party platform, and win in a landslide.

This assumes two things, both of which seem likely to me:

1. Snowden someday gets a presidential pardon or he decides to come back and endure a public trial that he wins because 12 jurors of his peers won't convict the guy who went after the government on their behalf.

2. The government of the U.S.… READ MORE

The Demand Planning Career, Is it a Curse or a Blessing?

By Sylvia Starnes
Curse king tut 300x199 The Demand Planning Career, Is it a Curse or a Blessing?

If you have any knowledge of Demand Planning, I am sure that you have heard the following: “Demand Planners are like meteorologists, they rarely get credit for doing the job correctly and they’re only noticed when they get it wrong.” Even so, the bottom line is that there are serious and costly ramifications which can occur if these decisions are wrong. For this reason, the demand planning position can be one of the most important and visible in the company.… READ MORE

Guest blogger: Len Tashman previews Spring 2014 issue of Foresight

By Mike Gilliland
LenTashman2014 Guest blogger: Len Tashman previews Spring 2014 issue of Foresight

Here is editor Len Tashman’s preview of the new Spring 2014 issue of Foresight. In particular note the new article by Steve Morlidge of CatchBull, reporting on an analysis of eight B2B and B2C companies, which we’ll discuss in a separate post.

An organization’s collaboration in forecasting and planning has both internal and external components. While sales and operations planning (S&OP) has become the standard infrastructure for collaborative efforts within the firm, opportunities for collaboration among supply chain partners have emerged as potential win-wins for the companies involved.… READ MORE

Things I Can't Do

I'm starting to get alarmed about my ever-shrinking attention span. When you combine my gnat-like attention span with the creeping complexity of life and my infinite to-do list it renders simple tasks impossible.

For example, every now and then I have to write an old-timey check. The entire process takes less than a minute, but I can't concentrate long enough to fill in the date and amount without my mind wandering and my hand doing automatic writing on whatever topic is passing through.… READ MORE

Time for a Mea Culpa?

By Lora Cecere
cautious 1024x617 Time for a Mea Culpa?

It is a slow week. Most of my friends are on vacation. I would like to be on vacation with them, but it is not in the cards.

I have taken myself off the road to write the book Metrics That Matter. It is tedious.

Let me just state for the record that “Saying that you are going to write a book, is far more exciting than writing one.” I like to write, but I am 52,000 words into a 90,000 word project, and I am struggling.… READ MORE

Infographic: 5 Top Opportunities in Your Supply Chain

By Stephanie Stein

5 opportunities  Infographic: 5 Top Opportunities in Your Supply Chain

The infographic below depicts the top five opportunities in your supply chain. By conquering supply chain complexity, wrangling data, deploying supply chain analytics, improving supply chain metrics, and developing supply chain talent your company can remain competitive and adapt to changes in the marketplace. If you want to read more about these 5 opportunities, visit this previous blog by Billy Hou.

Source: OPS Rules Blog… READ MORE