New Olympic Event

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I have often said that training your kid for the Olympics is a form of child abuse because it is such a waste of time and talent. Especially if you don’t win. Training for the Olympics is a good example of not following the odds.

But apparently things CAN get worse, at least for the athletes that will be swimming in the rivers in Rio that are equal parts poop and water.

If your firewall is blocking the image, see it on Twitter here.… READ MORE

Living by the Odds

I like to live my life by the odds. 

For example, I don’t often ride a bicycle because the risk of injury is high while the enjoyment can be matched by safer activities. For most of my sporting life I played tennis because it offers a good exercise-to-injury ratio. Even distance running is less safe.

As a result of my safety bias, and luck too, I have never had a sporting injury of any major consequence. Today, I really, really want to own a motorcycle.… READ MORE

Thinking Strategically

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Are you a strategic thinker or a victim?

You’re probably one or the other.

The other day a smart, attractive, 27-year old, white woman told me it was hard to get a job in California because she is a woman.

That’s a victim.

A few months ago I had a minor leg injury that looked like it would keep me from doing cardio for a few weeks. My first thought was that it was an opportunity to do more weight training on my upper body, which I wanted to do anyway.… READ MORE

Combining Load Forecasts from Independent Experts: Experience at NPower Forecasting Challenge 2015

Forecast combination is regarded as one of the best practices of forecasting. I think it is a straightforward and practical approach to improving existing forecasts. This paper describes the method my students took in the NPower Forecasting Challenge 2015. We will present the paper at the 47th North America Power Symposium.

Citation
Jingrui Xie, Bidong Liu, Xiaoqian Lyu, Tao Hong, and David Basterfield, “Combining load forecasts from independent experts: experience at NPower forecasting challenge 2015″, the 47th North American Power Symposium (NAPS2015), October 4 – 6, 2015

Combining Load Forecasts from Independent Experts Experience at NPower Forecasting Challenge 2015

Jingrui Xie, Bidong Liu, Xiaoqian Lyu, Tao Hong, and David Basterfield

Abstract

The NPower Forecasting Challenge 2015 invited students and professionals worldwide to predict daily energy usage of a group of customers.… READ MORE

The Lenovo Way

By Lora Cecere mick1 150x150 The Lenovo Way

Driving supply chain excellence is easier when companies are clear on the definition. Getting clear is a journey. To help supply chain leaders on this journey, we are conducting interviews. Here we share the perspective of Mick Jones, Vice President for Global Logistics and Supply Chain Strategy, Mick shares these insights. He is coordinating the IBM Supply Chain Integration of the Lenovo Enterprise (Server) Business Groups. The role’s focus is multi-faceted as he designs and executes a new physical network to support the acquisition.… READ MORE

Robots Read News about Dumb Trump

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If you can’t see the image because of your company’s firewall, see it on Twitter :

Here comes a little company that is about to change the world with a small device that scans your food and tells you what is in it.

You might be saying this is no big deal. It is just another way for diet Nazis to obsess over something new.

But imagine being able to scan your food and have the device tell you it is unhealthy (in essence).… READ MORE

Tao Hong: Be Honest

Tao Hong always sticks to his integrity, especially when it comes to energy forecasting. As graduate program director and EPIC assistant professor at the Systems Engineering and Engineering Management Department at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, he said the best advice he has ever received is to always be honest.
Sometimes we are pressured to make the forecasts following someone else’ personal agenda. Rather than modeling other people’s mind and making fraudulent forecasts, we should always stick to our integrity.… READ MORE

Why You Are Insane

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This morning I needed to respond to an email request for action. It was a simple task.

But the email says I did not respond to a recent voice mail. I search my phone and learn I have had no voice mail messages for days. Now I have a mystery to solve. Does my voice mail work?

The email that asked me to do the task answered one question I had about the task from prior conversations but not another. So I can only do a half-reply with the information I have.… READ MORE

Planning Software: Insights on User Satisfaction

By Lora Cecere planning satisfaction Planning Software: Insights on User Satisfaction

As a research analyst, I am studying things that are incredibly difficult to measure. The topics may sound easy, but they are not. In my research, I answer questions like:

Which technology systems drive the greatest satisfaction? How satisfied are users with supply chain planning technologies? What drives the highest level of satisfaction?

The answer to these questions requires the analysis of many factors. As a student of the social sciences, on this blog, I want to continually share insights to drive new levels of thinking.… READ MORE