How to Know Your Dating Site is a Fraud

When the Ashley-Madison hack revealed that the vast majority of female profiles on the “dating” site were fake, three groups of people already knew that. A long time ago.

One of those groups includes all of the people on Earth that have more than five minutes of experience in the business world. If you are building a business that only has value if populated by lots of users on day one, you can’t get there from here. At least not legally, or ethically.… READ MORE

Why Do They Hate Science So Much?

I love science more than you do. I would have sex with science if it let me. Sometimes I worship science. It has earned my trust, unlike whatever absurdities other people believe in. I am a man of reason.

Sure, science has a few warts. Don’t we all? And remember, science is more of a journey toward truth than a destination. We expect corrections along the way. Those corrections are an essential part of the scientific journey to truth. 

We know the scientific method is the best method because it was invented by Sir Isaac Newton, the same man who invented calculus, when he wasn’t conjuring gold using alchemy.… READ MORE

Trump and Godwin’s Law

The media is having a hard time wounding Trump. The attacks keep bouncing off. Looks like they stepped up their game today.

Here’s the SHOCKING story of how Trump once owned, or still owns, a book of Hitler’s speeches. It was a gift from a friend. Trump admits it and names the friend. The friend confirms he gave it to Trump.

I’m sure the friend meant well. Trump is a master persuader, and obviously Hitler was too. I’m thinking of picking up a copy for the same reason that I assume the friend though Trump would be interested.… READ MORE

Nate Silver Gives Trump 2% Chance of Getting Nominated

tumblr inline ntss7n5xfq1t63ajm 540 Nate Silver Gives Trump 2% Chance of Getting Nominated

On August 6th, Nate Silver predicted in his highly-respected FiveThiryEight blog that Donald Trump had only a 2% chance of getting the Republican nomination. Silver’s prediction is based on historical patterns, solid data, and sound reasoning. He’s great at what he does. Maybe the best.

A week later, on August 13th, I wrote my post about Trump’s “clown genius” and predicted – based on his tool set – that Trump would win the Republican nomination and the general election as well. … READ MORE

Fall 2015 forecasting education opportunities

By Mike Gilliland

You may not be in London on October 7 to take advantage of the Lancaster Centre for Forecasting‘s free workshop on promotional forecasting. However, there are still plenty of forecasting educational opportunities coming up this fall:

SAS Business Knowledge Series

Best Practices in Demand-Driven Forecasting (Chicago, September 24-25)

My colleague Charlie Chase (author of Demand-Driven Forecasting), delivers this new course over two full days at the SAS offices in downtown Chicago. Use the code BDDF-CHI for a 25% discount on the registration fee.… READ MORE

The Iranian Nuke Deal You Don’t Understand

So, the U.S. and Iran agreed to a nuke deal that looks to many observers as if we might be terrible negotiators. But we have no way of knowing what the secret side agreements are. And one assumes there are a few.

Have you noticed that the Israeli lobbying efforts on this topic seem uncharacteristically toothless?The media is acting surprised. You rarely see such a strong lobbying group coming up short. Kind of a mystery.

On a totally unrelated topic, the Saudis (our buddies in the Middle East) finally found the terrorist who bombed a US base in Saudi Arabia two decades ago.… READ MORE

Trump Persuasion Alert: The Bush-Slayer Comment

This article explains how Trump has decided to call Jeb Bush a “low energy” candidate.

That’s a linguistic kill shot. If you live to be a hundred, you will never see a better linguistic move.

No candidate can recover from the low-energy label. Trump ended Bush with two words. Now, even if Trump stumbles, Bush won’t be the one that surges to the front. From now on, Bush’s campaign hat is an anvil.

You might think I am exaggerating. Politicians label opponents all the time.… READ MORE

Trump Persuasion Alert: Bible Dodge

If you have been following my analysis of Trump’s persuasive brilliance you will see another example on display in this new story.

On the surface, Trump seems to be just another politician dodging just another question. Routine stuff, right?

But check out the wording. He had that reply in the chamber, locked and loaded. He said his relationship with the Bible was “personal.”

Compare that to any other wording he could have used. You can play at home. Try to come up with a better response than saying his relationship with the Bible is personal. … READ MORE

Will the Downturn Signal an Upturn?

By Lora Cecere lora 150x150 Will the Downturn Signal an Upturn?

Volatility. Demand redefined. Economic markets plummeting…. Daily we see the financial charts roll across the news.

“It’s partly about growth, partly about trade, and partly about psychology.” CNN Money Watch, August 12, 2015

On Tuesday and Wednesday, the Chinese restated and devalued of the Yuan.  The new valuation and the impact on markets is swinging the global stock market. The water cooler is buzzing. The discussions on 401K losses of 10-13% permeate the office.  News anchors broadcast real-time data on the stock market, and while there are many commentaries on the positives and the negatives, what is clear is we are in a period of change and uncertainty.… READ MORE

The Third Way on Immigration (Sort of a Trump Post)

Readers have objected to my prediction that Trump will win the nomination and then the general election because…

1. Trump needs about 40% of the Latino vote to win.

2. Only 13% of Latino voters support Trump, largely because of his immigration plan.

No politician can close that gap. Therefore, say the people who have been wrong about all-things-Trump so far, Mr. Trump must be playing some sort of power game with no real intention of winning the whole thing.

Maybe. … READ MORE

Trump Makes Univision do the Perp Walk

Could I love the man more? No. I could not.

I don’t know how Trump will perform as president, but he sure entertains.

If you are following my blog series on Donald Trump’s persuasive genius, you have to see this master stroke from today.

The set-up is a press conference in which a reporter for Univision asks Trump a potentially damaging question about his immigration plan. Here’s what you have to know to understand the scene:

1. Univision cancelled Trump’s Miss America Pageant over his comments about illegal immigrants.… READ MORE

New Learnings from Day 1 of IBF’s Business Forecasting & Planning Academy: An Attendee’s Perspective

By Jeff Metersky share save 256 24 New Learnings from Day 1 of IBF’s Business Forecasting & Planning Academy: An Attendee’s Perspective

Last week I had the opportunity to attend IBF’s Business Forecasting & Planning Academy held in Las Vegas. The two days were filled with fourteen educational sessions, three roundtable discussions, and multiple opportunities for connecting with peers and instructors. Each educational session, organized as introductory or advanced level, was two hours in length allowing for a deeper dive into content with plenty of opportunity for participant interaction. The instructors were academics, industry practitioners, and software providers giving the attendee a nice blend of viewpoints and experiences.… READ MORE