By Lora Cecere
Market-driven Value Networks: An adaptive network focused on a value-based outcomes. The network senses, translates, and orchestrates market changes (buy and sell-side markets) bi-directionally with near-real time data to align sell, deliver, make and sourcing organizations outside-in.
Today’s supply chain processes are inside-out with a focus on orders and shipments. We have automated transactional data; but there are no systems available to take independent demand data (channel data_ and move it through a multi-tier supply chain planning system. … READ MORE
By Mike Gilliland
Let’s continue now to Nikolaos Kourentzes’ blog post on How to choose a forecast for your time series.
Using a Validation Sample
Nikos first discusses the fairly common approach of using a validation or “hold out” sample.
The idea is to build your model based on a subset of the historical data (the “fitting” set), and then test its forecasting performance over the historical data that has been held out (the “validation” set). For example, if you have four years of monthly sales data, you could build models using the oldest 36 months, and then test their performance over the most recent 12 months.… READ MORE
In the previous blog we introduced DRP by reviewing the definition from the APICS Dictionary. It was stated that because of the differences in replenishment lead times, DRP was the best choice when the supply source is a company plant. The key to DRP is its ability to generate a time-phased schedule of requirements at each facility and then to pass those requirements on to higher channel echelon facilities ending at the plant.
Often termed the time-phased order point (TPOP), the below figure provides an example of a typical time-phased grid.… READ MORE
For months I have been saying mostly good things in this blog about Trump’s powers of persuasion, and mostly bad things about how the Clinton campaign does persuasion. And yet Clinton has a solid lead in the polls, assuming the polls are accurate. How can that be?
The quick answer is that Clinton’s side is totally winning the persuasion battle.
Clinton’s side includes more than her campaign team. It also includes pundits, supporters on social media, and the liberal-leaning parts of the mainstream media.… READ MORE
By Mike Gilliland
Dr. Nikolaos Kourentzes Forecasting Professor with great hair
Nikolaos Kourentzes is Associate Professor at Lancaster University, and a member of the Lancaster Centre for Forecasting. In addition to having a great head of hair for a forecasting professor, Nikos has a great head for explaining fundamental forecasting concepts.
In his recent blog post on How to choose a forecast for your time series, Nikos discusses the familiar validation (or “hold out”) sample method, and the less familiar approach of using information criteria (IC).… READ MORE
By Ken Fordyce
Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) is a continuous business process that enables firms from hospitals to chemicals to respond to emerging situations intelligently. To learn more, please read my previous blog ‘A Guide to Supply Chain Management: Making Intuition More Valuable’.
Our focus today is to discuss the relevance of buzz words such as Analytics, Predictive Analytics, Data Science, and Machine Learning, for S&OP.
What is analytics?
Analytics is a portfolio of loosely coupled methods for quantitative analysis that historically had “separate” disciplines or neighborhoods with common ancestors and occasional visits between groups.… READ MORE
Last week, UK citizens voted to leave the European Union (EU) with the passing of a referendum known as Brexit—British Exit. The tidal wave of reaction and speculation which followed the announcement signals far-reaching effects from this historic change, and many supply chain professionals are asking, “how does Brexit impact my supply chains?” While I can’t answer that directly, I can provide a framework for developing an answer.
Essentially, Brexit is a multi-faceted supply chain disruption. Supply chain disruptions can be mapped against the APICS SCOR model’s structure of Plan, Source, Make, Deliver, Return, and Enable.… READ MORE
By Lora Cecere
Today, I unpacked my bags. In the last six months, in my travels, I have presented to supply chain teams in China, Belgium, France, Germany, Peru, Mexico, Netherlands, South Africa, Singapore, and the United Kingdom. To streamline my efforts, I just kept a packed bag in the closet. I strongly feel that if I am going to cover the global supply chain that I need to experience it.
Connectivity enabled the growth of the global supply chain opening up markets driving opportunity.… READ MORE
The Seven Wonders of the Ancient World include The Great Pyramid of Giza in Egypt, the Temple of Artemis at Ephesus in Turkey, and the Hanging Gardens of Babylon in Iraq. The modern world has its own wonders. According to the American Society of Civil Engineers, the Panama Canal is one of those wonders. Its expansion will open June 26, and The Wall Street Journal reports that this improvement is critical to Western trade in the economic long run. The canal accommodates about one-third of Asia-to-Americas trade but required infrastructure upgrades to keep up with the latest shipping trends.
“As the [shipping] industry copes with its downturn, major shipping companies are pooling their resources and using fewer but much bigger ships—ones that are too large to fit through the pre-expansion Panama Canal,” Costas Paris, Robbie Whelan, and Kejal Vyas write.… READ MORE
According to a Reuters report, Target is cracking down on suppliers to better compete with Amazon and Walmart. Target’s new policies, which took effect May 30, require suppliers to provide a single day arrival date for shipments to Target’s warehouses and do away with delivery “grace periods.” Suppliers who fail to deliver on time will be charged late fees of 5 percent of the order cost, an increase from their previous 1 percent to 2 percent.
Increasingly stringent supplier demands from retailers such as Target, Walmart, and Amazon lead one to ask— How fast should a supply chain flow and what can you do improve speed?… READ MORE
Perhaps the biggest unreported story of this presidential election is the humiliation of the American male. Unless I’m blinded by confirmation bias – which is entirely possible – it seems to me that the humiliation of American men is now institutionalized in the media.
Check out this commercial for dishwasher detergent. And take careful note of the American man’s v-neck sweater. That’s the uniform of a man who is owned by a woman.
You’re laughing because you know it’s true. How many of the married men reading this blog have received those same sweaters as “gifts” from women?… READ MORE
By Ken Fordyce
Organizations, from health care facilities to manufacturing giants to small restaurants, can be viewed as an ongoing sequence of loosely coupled activities where current and future assets are matched with current and future demand across the supply chain or demand supply network (preferred term of Dr. Karl Kempf – Director of Decision Technology and Senior Fellow, Intel). These planning and scheduling decisions occur across a complex playing field organized by decision tier (strategic, tactical, operational, and relevant time response) and organization (corporate planning, factory, marketing, purchasing, etc.).… READ MORE