Don't fine tune your forecast!

By Mike Gilliland Radio240 Don't fine tune your forecast!

Does your forecast look like a radio? No? Then don’t treat it like one.

A radio’s tuning knob serves a valid purpose. It lets you make fine adjustments, improving reception of the incoming signal, resulting in a clearer and more enjoyable listening experience.

But just because you can make fine adjustments to your forecast, doesn’t mean you should. In fact, you shouldn’t.

Two Things Can Happen — And One of them is Bad

Famed college football coach Woody Hayes (fired unceremoniously in 1978 for punching an opposing player) was know for powerful teams that ran the ball, eschewing the forward pass.… READ MORE

Try This Trick to Improve Focus

Are you having trouble focusing because the world is full of distractions? I have a brain trick that might help. I’ll get to that in a minute.

I have never been diagnosed with ADDHD. But I do have a massive problem with managing distractions. I have always had problems focusing on the uninteresting, but it feels as if the complexity of life in 2015 has tripled my problem.

To get a sense of the challenge, here’s what I did between 5-7 AM this morning.… READ MORE

Robots Read News – Economic update

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Other Interesting Things Today…

I predict that healthcare expenses will someday drop to 25% of their current level thanks to advances in medical devices. (I sometimes see the new stuff in beta when they pitch for funding, and WOW.) For example, check out a new digital stethoscope that promises to make a big difference.

Next, Is passion a key to success, or just another benefit of getting there? I know I get plenty excited when things work out for me. Vivian Giang helps us sort that out.READ MORE

Have You Ever Changed Your Mind? – By Diana Wales


Forward by Scott Adams

You probably know that people have been sending me topic suggestions for Dilbert for years. But you don’t know that one person has been my most prolific source: Diana Wales, my guest blogger for today. 

Generating a novel topic idea for Dilbert is not easy. To put things in perspective, if a hundred readers send me one suggestion each, I might find a use for 5% of them. Diana’s hit rate per email was closer to 80%.… READ MORE

Are You a Fiction-Thinker?

If every new idea you encounter reminds you of a movie, song, or novel that you have consumed in the past, it might be holding you back.

Movies and books form a mental structure in your head of what is possible and what is not. But these are artificial structures based on the rules of fiction. They do not necessarily represent what is practical or possible in the real world.

As you know, all people are irrational. We make decisions and then we rationalize them after the fact and create false memories of why we did what we did.… READ MORE

Reward those who cooperate with end to end optimization goals

By Mike Romeri 3084f4ce 79fb 4515 9532 49a35aaf41d0 Reward those who cooperate with end to end optimization goals

This is the final blog in a series devoted to exploring organizational techniques that can be used to accelerate the achievement of improvements in the supply chain within a complex organization. The series applies the principles in the book Six Simple Rules to Capturing Value Locked up within Complex Organizations.

So, why have I taken the time to write these pieces on using organizational techniques to reduce complexity and accelerate progress? In simple terms, it is because the people who staff and manage these business processes also matter a lot.… READ MORE

The Effrindibulum Maneuver

Our bodies have too many parts. I can’t be expected to remember all of them. That’s why I created the word effrindibulum. Now when someone points to their ear and asks “What is the name of this part?” I can answer confidently that it is called the effrindibulum.

This word has many uses. If you injure yourself, and you don’t remember the name of the tendon or muscle involved, just say you pulled your effrindibulum and change the subject.

In order for this method to work for you, try saying out loud the word effrindibulum until you can say it with confidence the next time a discussion of body parts comes up.… READ MORE

Forecast Value Added (FVA) – Series 3 Interview

By Michael Gilliland

Interviewer: Michael Gilliland, SAS

This month’s interview is with Steve Morlidge of CatchBull.

Steve has 30 years of practical experience in designing and running performance management systems at Unilever, and is the author of Future Ready: How to Master Business Forecasting. His book is aimed at a general business audience, although he has also written extensively in journals on forecastability, FVA and other technical subjects. Steve is the creator of ForecastQT, a forecasting performance management application in the Cloud, which exploits the insights and innovations described in his articles.… READ MORE

Robots Read News – about Russia

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Check out the latest news on 3D camera, Haptics, HIV scanner, and alarming thermometeron on Paul Worthington’s Top Tech Blog.

See Tamra Teig’s Berkeley Start-up Review blog for the most interesting start-ups coming out of the Berkeley start-up ecosystem (second only to Stanford in number.)

And don’t miss Vivian Giang’s post on the dangers of smiling icon smile Robots Read News   about Russia


My book on success: “…the best business book I have read in the last decade.” (Amazon 5-star review Feb 26, 2015)

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Source: Blog… READ MORE

Skeptics Say Science Has No Obligation to Communicate Clearly

I was just alerted to an odd podcast called The Skeptics Guide to the Universe in which a panel of unpleasant people take things out of context and get angry about them. Apparently I was in their cross-hairs on Episode 502, about 16 minutes in. I can’t link to it directly but the main page is here.

Keep in mind that this is a panel of rational, science-loving skeptics. That’s what makes observing the irrationality extra fun. The psychology of it is fascinating.… READ MORE

The Two Biggest Problems in the United States are Food and Marriage

Here’s the problem with food:

Broccoli is food.

Cake is food.

Those two things are not the same. Broccoli is good for your body and cake is not. When you have two items that are almost opposites, they probably should not have the same name. Would it make sense to have only one word to cover both criminal and victim?

I know you hate big government, so imagine what follows as a thought experiment. Imagine the government passes a law to label all edibles as one of these two categories:


Nobel Prize Winning Physicist Accidentally Agrees With Idiot

When you have a minute, and some headphones, this recent TED talk by Nobel Prize winner George Smoot on the high likelihood we are computer simulations is fascinating.

Then read the same ideas from an idiot, written a few years earlier, here. 

What does it say about the nature of reality when your top scientists and your village idiots have the same hypotheses?

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Source: Blog… READ MORE